Indicative only, not financial advice. The concession-risk line is a judgement, not an observed figure: it stands for the chance that a residence held longer eventually sells for less. Set it to zero to see the hard costs alone.
What each line is
Where the numbers come from.
- Cost of capital
- The return the money tied up in an unsold residence is not earning somewhere else. On a facility it is the interest actually paid; on equity it is what the same money would have made in the next project. Most developers know this number precisely and it is usually the largest line here.
- Body corporate and outgoings
- Only applies once the building is complete and the residence is registered. Levies, rates, insurance and utilities on stock nobody lives in. Before completion this line is zero, which is why the model is more useful the closer a project gets to handover.
- Continued marketing and holding
- Portal renewals, media, the display suite, the sales floor and the management attention the residence keeps consuming. Easy to under-count because it is spread across people who are already on the payroll.
- Price concession risk
- The softest line and the one worth arguing about. It stands for the chance a residence held longer eventually trades below where it would have. It is a judgement, not an observation, and it is adjustable to zero precisely so the hard costs can be read on their own.
What it does not include
The model is deliberately incomplete.
There is no tax treatment, no financing structure, no allowance for staged settlement and no opportunity cost on the site itself. Every one of those is project specific and none of them can be guessed from outside. A model that pretended to include them would produce a more precise number and a less honest one.
It also assumes the residence eventually sells. Where premium stock is carried into a completed building and then discounted to move, the real figure is larger than anything this page will show.
Treat the output as an order of magnitude for a conversation, not a line in a feasibility. The point is not the number. It is whether the number is larger than the cost of doing something about it, and in our experience of premium stock it usually is.
Why the delay happens
Premium stock rarely stalls on price.
A residence at the top of a building is bought by very few people, and those people are being asked to commit before they can stand in the room. The published evidence points the same way: the Gold Coast ceiling has been set repeatedly by residences that did not exist when they sold, including a record at A$30m in May 2026, and research houses currently rate a substantial share of apartments due in 2028 and 2029 as at risk of delay or withdrawal.
So the buyer at that level is carrying two doubts at once. Whether the residence will be what the renders promised, and whether it will arrive at all. Price is rarely the thing holding them, and dropping it is an expensive way to answer a question nobody asked.
That is the whole argument for building the evidence instead. The cheapest month is the one you do not spend holding.